Bitcoin, the first and the largest cryptocurrency by market cap was introduced to the world 11 years ago by Satoshi Nakamoto. Even though its been more than a decade since the launch of Bitcoin, the adoption of digital gold is still in its infancy. With several authorities dissing the digital asset, Bitcoin’s place in the marketplace is still unclear. On a podcast, Kraken’s Director of Business Development, Dan Held revealed his stance on Bitcoin’s state in the present marketplace.
Held pointed out that Bitcoin’s price volatility makes it less feasible for it to be viewed as a form of payment. He further elaborated on the same and suggested that including Bitcoin as a form of currency as a unit of account which was more volatile than fiat wouldn’t be very convenient.
Furthermore, he revealed that Bitcoin might stand a chance post “Hyper-Bitcoinization.” The digital gold might incur over a half a billion or a billion users, which would bolster its chance at becoming a form of payment. However, Held suggested that such a scenario wouldn’t take place in the near future, probably sometime much later.
Additionally, a potential ‘Bitcoin super cycle’ would act as a catalyst to the process. However, Held when on to speculate that the previous two major bull runs were witnessed in the cryptocurrency industry shortly after the halving. With the forthcoming halving just months away, Held pointed out that “macro backdrops” were significantly different from the ones recorded during the earlier halving cycles.
Held further elaborated on the same stated,
“If Bitcoin is excepted by institutional traders as a risk off trade or a safe haven asset, as a narrative in 2020-2021, Bitcoin may undergo a super cycle. Major user metrics around the protocol are based on market boom or bust cycles but in a super cycle, Bitcon may moved from 20 to 40 million users to a billion or half a billion users.”
Held then went on to detail that user experience that was based on the Lightning Network wasn’t sufficient enough to harbor a billion users at present.
Bitcoin can reach $25K if usage crosses 1M people: Thomas Lee
Managing Partner and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, Tom Lee, recently made an appearance on CNBC‘s ‘Street Signs Asia‘ segment to talk about Bitcoin price movements in the future. Lee also spoke about why he thinks Bitcoin will touch $25K by 2022.
According to Lee, for an industry that’s over a decade old, these are still early days for digital assets. However, as time passes, it will become very institutional, he said. Fundstrat’s Lee added,
“Over time, it’s going to become an asset class, and once we hit that it’s actually another hockey stick.”
When asked about his prediction for the king coin’s price, Lee said that it had been established back in 2017 as a five-year prediction. According to him, the predicted goal would be easy to achieve due to cryptocurrencies being network value assets — the more people that hold it, the greater its value.
“In fact, it’s a log function, so if you double the users you get a quadrupling of value, and to go to $25,000 you essentially need a 4x rise (a little bit less than that) which means you need to double the number of people who hold Bitcoin.”
According to Lee’s estimates, there are under half a million people in the world who own and use Bitcoin widely today. He also compared Bitcoin to Internet stocks such as FAANG and attributed 70% of their returns since the IPOs to the growth of the Internet over that period of time.
“So in other words, it was a log function of the Internet growth, and that’s how cryptocurrencies are going to work. That’s just saying if you take it to a million users, you could get to $25,000.”